There has been a sharp slowdown in revenue and profit growth in the cement sector in recent quarters but it is yet to show in the share prices of cement companies. On the contrary, there has been a rally in cement stocks and a re-rating of their equity valuation in the past three years despite an earnings contraction during the period.
The July-September quarter (Q2) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the largest listed consumer electrical solutions companies, Havells India and Polycab India, followed similar trends, demonstrating robust revenue growth while falling short of profitability expectations. Both companies witnessed overall growth in the 16-30 per cent range, but margins declined by 130-290 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Although brokerages are bullish on long-term prospects and have raised revenue projections, earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to margin pressures.
The stock of Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals has shed about 12 per cent since the start of the month due to a muted near-term outlook. Demand slowdown across segments and pre-buying in cooling products in the June quarter are expected to weigh on revenues going ahead. In addition to pre-buying in the preceding quarter, demand conditions are soft on account of lower consumer spending due to inflationary conditions, weakness in rural demand and the fact that Q2 remains a soft quarter after a strong summer.
Companies in the banking, finance sector and insurance (BFSI) sector have underperformed on the bourses despite leading the earnings growth charts in the post-pandemic period. This has created a dichotomy between their earnings and share prices. BFSI companies have never been less expensive than the rest of the equity market.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
Shares of auto component major, Samvardhana Motherson International, has gained 11.5 per cent on the bourses after the company approved the qualified institutions placement (QIP) issue and announced the calculation methodology for its compulsorily convertible debentures, or CCDs, into equity shares. Analysts cite strong investor response to the issue that has kept the sentiment positive for the stock. Brokerages, however, have a mixed view on the outlook for the auto parts supplier.
From its highs over the past month, the stock of Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare fell 7 per cent before recovering this week. The stock has been an underperformer over the last year and has traded flat over this period.
The last four years, the best for corporate profits in a long time, have not been as impressive for corporate capital expenditure. The combined net profits of India's top listed companies excluding banks, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.4 per cent since FY20, a sharp jump from the 7.4 per cent in corporate earnings between FY14 and FY19.
The listed information technology (IT) subsidiaries of engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T), LTIMindtree (LTIM) and L&T Technology Services, have seen sharp upmoves over the past fortnight, with returns ranging from 14 to 18 per cent. Both have outperformed the peer index, the National Stock Exchange Nifty IT, which has gained about 8 per cent, while the benchmark Nifty 50 is up 4 per cent during this period.
Despite volume growth in the export segment and strong demand in the domestic market, pricing uptick is eluding Indian agrochemical companies.
After four years of high double-digit growth in profits, corporate earnings of Indian companies hit a speed bump in the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25), leading to the risk of a downward revision in India Inc profit estimates for FY25 and volatility in the equity market. Earnings growth slowed despite companies in most non-financial sectors reporting higher operating margins from lower commodity prices and a decline in interest costs.
The Street will thus keep an eye on the operating profit margins over the next couple of quarters.
'India's top companies currently lack the organisational wherewithal to hire and train 2 million interns annually, given their current scale of operations and existing employee base.'
India Inc has reported a muted start to the financial year 2024-25, with a decline in net earnings and a modest single-digit uptick in revenues. An analysis of 488 companies that have released their results for the June 2024 quarter reveals a 1.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in combined net profit -- the weakest performance in the past seven quarters. In stark contrast, the combined net profit of these companies experienced a 13.6 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the previous quarter (Q4FY24) and a 65.2 per cent Y-o-Y rise in Q1FY24.
Weighed down by the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, Reliance Industries (RIL) results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2024-25 (FY25) missed Street estimates. A 14 per cent fall in the O2C segment's operating profit compared to the year-ago quarter and a 22 per cent sequential decline pulled down the consolidated performance. The O2C segment accounts for a third of the overall operating profit and about 60 per cent of the attributable consolidated profit.
The early-bird results for the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25) hint at a slowdown in corporate revenues and profits in FY25. Corporate profits might face headwinds from a continued revenue growth slowdown and a reversal in margin gains from lower commodity and energy prices in FY24. The combined net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of the 210 companies that have declared their Q1FY25 results so far is down 4.2 per cent from the year-ago period - their worst showing in seven quarters.
Shares of Avenue Supermarts (DMart) have gained about 5 per cent over the past week on better than expected June quarter (Q1FY25) performance, hopes of a recovery in discretionary demand, and margin gains going ahead. The key takeaway from the results was the robust gross margin performance. Riding on improving mix, DMart posted a 34 basis point year-on-year (Y-o-Y) improvement in gross margins to 14.9 per cent.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
Stocks of electronics manufacturing services companies have been major outperformers, with four of the top eight listed majors by market capitalisation doubling their value over the past 12 months. The biggest gainer in this space has been the market leader, Dixon Technologies (India), which is up nearly threefold.
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